My predictions

I’ve never done this so let’s see how close I get. I’m using the past few election results (general 2007, 2003 and recent by-elections) to base my predictions. I've done this mainly because I haven’t paid any attention to the local campaigns and also because local candidates only play a very small role in influencing the results anyway. I’ve stayed away from 1999 since I don’t think the results would be especially helpful.

ELMWOOD:

Things to consider:
-NDP's Jim Maloway received 65 % (2003) and 62 % (2007) of the vote.
-Tories finised second in both elections.
-Libs finished third in both elections.

-Doer is still well liked in Winnipeg
-The governing party’s popular vote tends to slip a bit in by-elections.
-Blaikie’s change from federal to provincial politics may have pissed off some folks.
-Blaikie is still very well regarded.
-This is a traditional NDP seat.

Winner -NDP 54 %
First loser –Tories 28 %
Second loser –Liberals 18 %

All things considered I don’t think Blaikie will hit 60 % but it will still be an easy win for the NDP. The Lib candidate seems to be working hard but I don’t think it will translate into much. The Lib brand is just too weak.


Turn out:
Things to consider:
-Turn out for the 2005 Fort Whyte by-election was 21 % lower than the 2007 general election. 59 vs 38 %.
-Turn out for the 2004 Minto by-election was 3 % lower than the 2007 general election. 50 vs 47 %.
-Turn out for the 2004 Turtle Mountain by-election was 7 % lower than the 2007 general election. 54 vs 47 %.

Elmwood has had a turn out of 47 % (2003) and 50 % (2007).

Final verdict on turnout: 39 %


THE PAS:

Things to consider:
-NDP has won the last two elections by landslides (69 % in 2007).
-Tories were second in 2007, while Libs placed second in 2003.
-Doer is still well liked in the north.
-The governing party’s popular vote tends to slip a bit in by-elections.
-NDP candidate seems to be quite strong but won't have the same kind of name recognition as Oscar Lathlin did.
-This is a traditonal NDP seat.

Winner-NDP 59 %
First loser-Tories 25 %
Second loser- Liberals 15 %


Turn out:
-Things to consider:
The Pas has had a turn out of 40 % (2003) and 37 % (2007)

Final verdict on turnout: 29 %