I’ve been a bad blogger as I’ve neglected to blog the entire week leading up to the vote. But here are a few anecdotes and observations from the weekend’s activities. I’ve tried to stay away from news that other bloggers/media have already reported on.
-Depending on your sense of humour, EMCEE Eric Robinson’s off colour jokes at the Premier’s tribute event either kept you giggling like a 10 year old boy in sex ed. class or shifting uncomfortably in your seat. My favourite line that I can repeat on this blog (and I’m paraphrasing) “we shouldn’t be crying, after all, the guy’s not dead you know” (referring to Doer leaving for Washington).
-A second great line was from Alex Forrest who told a story about California firefighters who remarked that they would gladly trade two Arnold Schwarzeneggers for one Gary Doer.
-Emily Doer, Gary’s oldest daughter stole the show and gave us a humorous glimpse into the family’s personal life. It was easy to see that this apple did not fall far from the Doer tree. There was one spoiled ballot and I’m pretty sure it went to Emily Doer.
-Selinger is 58 and if successful in the 2011 election would likely serve only one term. In six years time, Ashton will be 59. Does anyone think we’ve seen the last of him? Selinger has also confirmed that Ashton will be in his Cabinet which is probably a good move for party unity and to keep an eye on him.
-“Opposition leaders in Manitoba are warning the grace period for incoming premier Greg Selinger could be a short one. "I think the honeymoon will be brief to non-existent," said Hugh McFadyen, leader of Manitoba's Progressive Conservative party” CBC.
No kidding. Only hours after Selinger was elected, the Tories put out a lame release attacking the new Premier.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Thursday, October 8, 2009
The human side of politics
I know I’ve poked fun at him in earlier posts but I thought it was classy of Hugh to leave politics aside today as he offered a sincere speech to the outgoing Premier on his last day in the house. However, it was unfortunate that this person was not able to show the same kind of civility during his speech.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
By the numbers
Thanks Curtis for taking me out of my misery. I've been trying to do this unsuccessfully for some time.
Ashton has picked up 68 of the MYND delegates, while Selinger has picked up the remaining 40.
Current delegate breakdown:
Selinger 741
Ashton 624
Swan 72
Independent 55
Delegates left:
Labour 430
Super Delegates 214
Total delegates 2136
Delegates to win 1068
Selinger needs another 327 to win
Ashton needs another 444 to win
I have 32 Super Delegates (MPs/City Councillors/MLAs) already locked in to Selinger and 7 with Ashton.
To win, Selinger would need to pick up half of labour’s delegates and half of the remaining Super Delegates.
To win, Ashton would need slightly more than half of Labour’s delegates, half of the remaining Super Delegates, all of Swan’s delegates and all of the independent delegates.
Which scenario seems more likely?
Ashton has picked up 68 of the MYND delegates, while Selinger has picked up the remaining 40.
Current delegate breakdown:
Selinger 741
Ashton 624
Swan 72
Independent 55
Delegates left:
Labour 430
Super Delegates 214
Total delegates 2136
Delegates to win 1068
Selinger needs another 327 to win
Ashton needs another 444 to win
I have 32 Super Delegates (MPs/City Councillors/MLAs) already locked in to Selinger and 7 with Ashton.
To win, Selinger would need to pick up half of labour’s delegates and half of the remaining Super Delegates.
To win, Ashton would need slightly more than half of Labour’s delegates, half of the remaining Super Delegates, all of Swan’s delegates and all of the independent delegates.
Which scenario seems more likely?
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Riding association voting over
Selinger took Russell and most of the delegates in the Lac du Bonnet riding yesterday. This wraps up the constituency voting part of the process.
This leaves 752 votes up for grab with 108 going tonight. Because MYND is not voting as a block but based on proportional representation it is not winner take all tonight. Because of this, we are likely going to see both Selinger and Ashton pick up a fair chunk of support.
-108 at MYND (on Tuesday)
-430 at Labour
-214 super delegates
What we can conclude based on the riding vote:
Selinger won a large majority of the ridings and got support in all regions of the province (except maybe the north). He has a lead of over 150 delegates. He was able to translate MLA support into delegate support with the exception of The Maples.
Swan won a few South Winnipeg ridings. Most of his support is expected to go to Selinger. Swan was able to translate MLA support into delegate support in about half of the ridings.
Ashton won fewer ridings but got support in the three largest ones (The Maples, The Pas and Thompson). His support was concentrated in the North, North East Winnipeg, South West Winnipeg and areas with large ethnic communities. Like Selinger, he was also able to translate MLA support into delegate support.
Riding Breakdown:
Selinger:
Assiniboia
Lord Roberts
River Heights
Fort Rouge
Selkirk
Kildonan
Gimli
Morris
Carman
St. Johns
St. James
Burrows
Fort Garry
St. Norbert
St. Boniface
Minto
Elmwood
Riel
Inkster
La Verendrye
Wolseley
Dauphin-Roblin
Wellington
Point Douglas
Kirkfield Park
Lac du Bonnet
Russell
Most of Westman
Swan or independent:
St. Vital
Southdale
Seine River
Concordia
Ashton:
Thompson
The Pas
Flin Flon
Interlake
Radisson
Transcona
River East
Rossmere
Tuxedo
Charleswood
Fort Whyte
The Maples
This leaves 752 votes up for grab with 108 going tonight. Because MYND is not voting as a block but based on proportional representation it is not winner take all tonight. Because of this, we are likely going to see both Selinger and Ashton pick up a fair chunk of support.
-108 at MYND (on Tuesday)
-430 at Labour
-214 super delegates
What we can conclude based on the riding vote:
Selinger won a large majority of the ridings and got support in all regions of the province (except maybe the north). He has a lead of over 150 delegates. He was able to translate MLA support into delegate support with the exception of The Maples.
Swan won a few South Winnipeg ridings. Most of his support is expected to go to Selinger. Swan was able to translate MLA support into delegate support in about half of the ridings.
Ashton won fewer ridings but got support in the three largest ones (The Maples, The Pas and Thompson). His support was concentrated in the North, North East Winnipeg, South West Winnipeg and areas with large ethnic communities. Like Selinger, he was also able to translate MLA support into delegate support.
Riding Breakdown:
Selinger:
Assiniboia
Lord Roberts
River Heights
Fort Rouge
Selkirk
Kildonan
Gimli
Morris
Carman
St. Johns
St. James
Burrows
Fort Garry
St. Norbert
St. Boniface
Minto
Elmwood
Riel
Inkster
La Verendrye
Wolseley
Dauphin-Roblin
Wellington
Point Douglas
Kirkfield Park
Lac du Bonnet
Russell
Most of Westman
Swan or independent:
St. Vital
Southdale
Seine River
Concordia
Ashton:
Thompson
The Pas
Flin Flon
Interlake
Radisson
Transcona
River East
Rossmere
Tuxedo
Charleswood
Fort Whyte
The Maples
Monday, October 5, 2009
Yesterday's split
Selinger and Ashton have split yesterday's voting with Selinger winning most of the Westman delegates and Ashton winning Fort Whyte. The delegate tally depends on who you ask. I have Selinger at about 150 ahead (riding delegates only).
Delegates left: 771
-20 delegates at constituencies (Monday: Lac du Bonnet and Russell)
-107 at MYND (on Tuesday)
-430 at Labour
-214 super delegates
Delegates left: 771
-20 delegates at constituencies (Monday: Lac du Bonnet and Russell)
-107 at MYND (on Tuesday)
-430 at Labour
-214 super delegates
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Update: Ashton closes the gap
Ashton is like the bad guy in a scary movie that just won't die. He has taken 128 of 138 delegates in The Maples and reportedly taken the Interlake. However, after taking St. Norbert, Wellington and Point Douglas on Thursday, Selinger is still ahead.
On a different matter, Ashton and Wyatt need to stop running to the press every time one of their supporters don't get to vote because they didn't follow a rule. The process is clearly explained from the onset and are the same for both sides. The Maples meeting was well organized and went smoothly. Yes it was long but don't you think Selinger's supporters have families too or was it because they went for a smoke.
Tally:
Selinger: 644
Ashton: 518
Swan or undeclared: 111 (most of these are Selinger's)
Delegates left: 863
-112 delegates at constituencies (eight constituencies go Sunday, the biggest being Fort Whyte and 7 others in the Westman region)
-107 at MYND (on Tuesday)
-430 at Labour
-214 super delegates
On a different matter, Ashton and Wyatt need to stop running to the press every time one of their supporters don't get to vote because they didn't follow a rule. The process is clearly explained from the onset and are the same for both sides. The Maples meeting was well organized and went smoothly. Yes it was long but don't you think Selinger's supporters have families too or was it because they went for a smoke.
Tally:
Selinger: 644
Ashton: 518
Swan or undeclared: 111 (most of these are Selinger's)
Delegates left: 863
-112 delegates at constituencies (eight constituencies go Sunday, the biggest being Fort Whyte and 7 others in the Westman region)
-107 at MYND (on Tuesday)
-430 at Labour
-214 super delegates
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Half-way point
First, let’s start with an update. Selinger has taken 61 of the 71 delegates in Inkster. He also took Dauphin-Roblin, Kirkfield Park, La Verendrye and Wolseley.
And this brings us to the halfway point of the delegate selection process.
So far just over 1,000 delegates have been chosen at the constituency level (42 of 57 ridings).
This leaves about 1,000 delegates to go including:
- 326 delegates at the constituency level
UPDATE: About 250 left with Interlake, St. Norbert, Wellington and Point Douglas having gone Oct 1.
-107 at MYND
-430 at Labour
-214 super delegates
From what I can tell, Ashton has the support of about 35 % of the delegates chosen at the constituency level to date, while Selinger has the support of about 65 %.
To win, Ashton would need to sweep The Maples, Interlake and Fort Whyte (205) which is possible.
But he would also need to pick up at least half of MYND, half of the Labour delegates and half of the Super Delegates as well as a few more constituencies such as Brandon, St. Norbert, Wellington and Lac du Bonnet.
Selinger’s road to victory is much easier. He needs to pick up half of MYND/Labour/Super Delegates and to be safe a couple constituencies such as Brandon.
The Yellow Snow decision desk is not ready to call this one yet (since I’ve under estimated Ashton throughout this process) but it’s getting close.
And this brings us to the halfway point of the delegate selection process.
So far just over 1,000 delegates have been chosen at the constituency level (42 of 57 ridings).
This leaves about 1,000 delegates to go including:
- 326 delegates at the constituency level
UPDATE: About 250 left with Interlake, St. Norbert, Wellington and Point Douglas having gone Oct 1.
-107 at MYND
-430 at Labour
-214 super delegates
From what I can tell, Ashton has the support of about 35 % of the delegates chosen at the constituency level to date, while Selinger has the support of about 65 %.
To win, Ashton would need to sweep The Maples, Interlake and Fort Whyte (205) which is possible.
But he would also need to pick up at least half of MYND, half of the Labour delegates and half of the Super Delegates as well as a few more constituencies such as Brandon, St. Norbert, Wellington and Lac du Bonnet.
Selinger’s road to victory is much easier. He needs to pick up half of MYND/Labour/Super Delegates and to be safe a couple constituencies such as Brandon.
The Yellow Snow decision desk is not ready to call this one yet (since I’ve under estimated Ashton throughout this process) but it’s getting close.
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