Thanks Curtis for taking me out of my misery. I've been trying to do this unsuccessfully for some time.
Ashton has picked up 68 of the MYND delegates, while Selinger has picked up the remaining 40.
Current delegate breakdown:
Super Delegates 214
Total delegates 2136
Delegates to win 1068
Selinger needs another 327 to win
Ashton needs another 444 to win
I have 32 Super Delegates (MPs/City Councillors/MLAs) already locked in to Selinger and 7 with Ashton.
To win, Selinger would need to pick up half of labour’s delegates and half of the remaining Super Delegates.
To win, Ashton would need slightly more than half of Labour’s delegates, half of the remaining Super Delegates, all of Swan’s delegates and all of the independent delegates.
Which scenario seems more likely?