Selinger took Russell and most of the delegates in the Lac du Bonnet riding yesterday. This wraps up the constituency voting part of the process.
This leaves 752 votes up for grab with 108 going tonight. Because MYND is not voting as a block but based on proportional representation it is not winner take all tonight. Because of this, we are likely going to see both Selinger and Ashton pick up a fair chunk of support.
-108 at MYND (on Tuesday)
-430 at Labour
-214 super delegates
What we can conclude based on the riding vote:
Selinger won a large majority of the ridings and got support in all regions of the province (except maybe the north). He has a lead of over 150 delegates. He was able to translate MLA support into delegate support with the exception of The Maples.
Swan won a few South Winnipeg ridings. Most of his support is expected to go to Selinger. Swan was able to translate MLA support into delegate support in about half of the ridings.
Ashton won fewer ridings but got support in the three largest ones (The Maples, The Pas and Thompson). His support was concentrated in the North, North East Winnipeg, South West Winnipeg and areas with large ethnic communities. Like Selinger, he was also able to translate MLA support into delegate support.
Riding Breakdown:
Selinger:
Assiniboia
Lord Roberts
River Heights
Fort Rouge
Selkirk
Kildonan
Gimli
Morris
Carman
St. Johns
St. James
Burrows
Fort Garry
St. Norbert
St. Boniface
Minto
Elmwood
Riel
Inkster
La Verendrye
Wolseley
Dauphin-Roblin
Wellington
Point Douglas
Kirkfield Park
Lac du Bonnet
Russell
Most of Westman
Swan or independent:
St. Vital
Southdale
Seine River
Concordia
Ashton:
Thompson
The Pas
Flin Flon
Interlake
Radisson
Transcona
River East
Rossmere
Tuxedo
Charleswood
Fort Whyte
The Maples
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Hey, be fair: Ashton knocked off ridings where the MLA supported Selinger. Selinger (and Swan) couldn't do that in return.
ReplyDeleteI think I alluded to it. Selinger knocked off three from Swan (Gimli, Kildonan, St. Johns). Ashton knocked off one from Selinger (The Maples) and one from Swan (The Pas).
ReplyDeleteIt's also easier to hold on to 3 ridings where Ashton had MLA support, compared to 16 for Selinger.
ReplyDeleteWhat about Rupertsland?
ReplyDeleteYou caught me. There are still a few where I don't know the results (Steinbach, Swan River, Rupertsland, Lakeside and a few other rural ones). I take it by your comment that it went to Ashton?
ReplyDeleteAny particualr reason we are still race bating? "His support was concentrated in the North, North East Winnipeg, South West Winnipeg and areas with large ethnic communities." Do we need to decide which communities are ethnic and which are not? We all have ethnicity, but white people only seem to point it out when the other person looks/sounds different than them.
ReplyDeleteMYND gave Ashton 68 delegates, Selinger got 40. That's a 28 delegate gain. If they hadn't changed the rules in midstream and been allowed to vote the same way the constituencies did, that would have been a 108 vote gain. Just sayin'...
ReplyDeleteFrom CJOB "Todd Scarth, spokesperson for the Selinger campaign says Selinger secured delegates in 40 out of 55 constituencies. Only Rupertsland and Emerson are left to be counted".
ReplyDelete