First, let’s start with an update. Selinger has taken 61 of the 71 delegates in Inkster. He also took Dauphin-Roblin, Kirkfield Park, La Verendrye and Wolseley.
And this brings us to the halfway point of the delegate selection process.
So far just over 1,000 delegates have been chosen at the constituency level (42 of 57 ridings).
This leaves about 1,000 delegates to go including:
- 326 delegates at the constituency level
UPDATE: About 250 left with Interlake, St. Norbert, Wellington and Point Douglas having gone Oct 1.
-107 at MYND
-430 at Labour
-214 super delegates
From what I can tell, Ashton has the support of about 35 % of the delegates chosen at the constituency level to date, while Selinger has the support of about 65 %.
To win, Ashton would need to sweep The Maples, Interlake and Fort Whyte (205) which is possible.
But he would also need to pick up at least half of MYND, half of the Labour delegates and half of the Super Delegates as well as a few more constituencies such as Brandon, St. Norbert, Wellington and Lac du Bonnet.
Selinger’s road to victory is much easier. He needs to pick up half of MYND/Labour/Super Delegates and to be safe a couple constituencies such as Brandon.
The Yellow Snow decision desk is not ready to call this one yet (since I’ve under estimated Ashton throughout this process) but it’s getting close.