UPDATE: Unlike my earlier prediction (previous post), I hear that the River Heights/Fort Rouge meeting ended up being a race between Swan and Selinger rather than Selinger and Ashton (with Selinger taking both ridings).
So far the MLAs that have supported a leadership candidate (McGifford, Rondeau and Howard) have translated their endorsement into delegate support (all for Selinger).
I agree with Curtis that it would be nice for the NDP to post results but I can tell you that this is not going to happen. This is not a cut and dry process and I don't think that even the Party will have a firm grasp on the level of support for each candidate after the end of the week. Some delegates may get elected without stating a preference for a specific candidate while others may change their allegiance during the process.
As for reporters, the only outlet that has been covering some of the delegate process is the Free Press and they aren't even staying around until all the votes are counted. The numbers will get even less accurate when we hit Super Thursday. All we bloggers can do is give a ball park figure based on what we hear and vague media accounts (for example, I know that my Charleswood/Assiniboia/Tuxedo figure for Selinger is not completely accurate). So my little project may not last much longer than a few days.
With all that in mind, next up is Radisson, Selkirk, Transcona, Kildonan and Steinbach.
Prediction:
Radisson (Selinger, despite MLA Jha's support for Ashton)
Selkirk (Selinger, with the support of MLA Dewar)
Transcona (Selinger, despite MLA Reid's support for Ashton)
Kildonan (Swan will break into the action mainly because of the support of MLA Chomiak)
Steinbach (Selinger, but who really cares, maybe 3 delegates up for grabs)
Selinger:
Charleswood/Assiniboia/Tux 29
Lord Roberts 29
UPDATE: River Heights 21
UPDATE: Fort Rouge 24
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 19
Total: 122
Magic number of delegates for a first ballot win: 878
Ashton:
Tuxedo 12
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 7
Total: 18
Swan:
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 12
Total: 12
Earlier predictions:
River Heights (Selinger)
Fort Rouge (Selinger)
Total delegates: 2000
Delegates needed for a first ballot win: 1000 delegates
Total delegates declared: 152
Delegates left to declare: 1848
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs based on this list + candidates voting for themselves
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It was an absolute cluster f@#k! People voting before delgate intros, before the election of automatic delgates. Can you tell its been a while since we have had to do this lol. Poor Andrew....he was born with a silver premier in his mouth lol
ReplyDeleteJust got back from Radisson. 31 delegates, and Ashton totally cleaned up - you didn't have to even wait for the results to see he walked away with it (so I left right after voting). Selinger and Swan didn't even come close to running full slates - Selinger had maybe 12 candidates, and Swan had like three.
ReplyDeleteIn all likelihood, 31-0-0 for Ashton