Thursday, September 24, 2009

Delegate Tally Update 1.5

Here's an incomplete account of yesterday's vote based on various sources.

Steinbach elected one delegate (winner ?)
Radisson elected 31 delegates (winner Ashton)
Transcona elected 18 delegates (Ashton 16, Selinger 2)
Kildonan (winner Selinger)
Selkirk (winner Selinger)

So far McGifford, Rondeau, Howard, Dewar, Jha and Reid have translated their support for a candidate into delegate support (4 for Selinger and 2 for Ashton). Chomiak was not able to hold serve for Swan.

Up next super Thursday, where 13 meetings are scheduled. This isn't as big a deal as some have made it out to be because most of these ridings have relatively few members. The big 3, in terms of membership (The Pas, The Maples and Inkster) are still coming up.

Carman Delegate Selection Meeting (Swan)
Concordia Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
Gimli Delegate Selection Meeting (Swan)
Lakeside Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
Morris Delegate Selection Meeting (Swan)
River East Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
Rossmere Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
Seine River Delegate Selection Meeting (Swan)
Southdale Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
Springfield Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
St. James Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
St. Johns Delegate Selection Meeting (Swan)
St. Vital Delegate Selection Meeting (Swan)

Earlier predictions:
River Heights (Selinger) Correct
Fort Rouge (Selinger) Correct
Radisson (Selinger) Incorrect
Selkirk (Selinger) Correct
Transcona (Selinger) Mostly incorrect
Kildonan (Swan) Incorrect
Steinbach (Selinger) Unknown

The thing that bothers me about the process is that MYND members get to vote twice. They vote as part of MYND and as part of their respective constituencies. Same with labour. For this reason, I have no problem with trying to water down their vote a bit by not letting them vote as a block. One-member one-vote anyone.

Charleswood/Assiniboia/Tux 29
Lord Roberts 29
River Heights 21
Fort Rouge 24
Transcona 2
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 19
Total: 124

Tuxedo 12
Radisson 31
Transcona 16
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 7
Total: 66

MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 12
Total: 12

Unknown: Steinbach 1 delegate

Total delegates: 2000
Delegates needed for a first ballot win: 1000 delegates

MLAs/City Councillors/MPs based on this list + candidates voting for themselves


  1. I've heard that Tcona wasn't anywhere near an even split - it was 16 our of 18 for Ashton, so you were only about 9% correct ;)

  2. I was surprised by the party's decision re MYND members. I don't have a huge problem with MYND members getting an extra chance to become a delegate (once at their constituency meeting and once at the MYND delegate selection meeting), but also think that the proposed system is more confusing than the old. I understand the difficulty of trying to elect which, say, 100 of 300 members who present themselves for election as delegates, but it seems to be that this could have been worked out in the form of holding regional meetings for MYND members.

    The media is reporting claims regarding delegate elected from last night's meetings. Not included in the delegate totals is the Concordia slate numbers, of which 25 to 29 were elected last night (I haven't seen an exact count). If I was to make a guess, I would say those elected slate members are two-thirds Selinger delegates and one-third Swan delegates.

  3. Just like the media, you seem to be consistently underestimating Ashton. It looks to me like he's second, well ahead of Swan. In fact, I'd say Swan is on the ropes. He should have done WAY better in those Winnipeg ridings. And I don't expect him to do anywhere near was well in the union delegate count than you think.

    The Pas could be the turning point. Selinger is still a comfortable front-runner, but after Ashton vacuums up 80+ delegates in Thompson, Selinger better pick up the lion's share in The Pas or we have a whole new game.