Friday, September 25, 2009

Delegate Tally 2.0

As Dan Lett stated in his recent column, this is race that is very difficult to call, which partly explains my very suspect prediction record. I've also underestimated Ashton's popularity in Winnipeg.

But I'm not giving up yet. Fortunately, I still have a few obvious ridings to help me come back to .500. Prediction Thompson (Ashton), The Pas (split Ashton/Swan), Flin Flon (Ashton). I'm also going to predict that Swan River and Elmwood went to Selinger. The vote has already occurred but I don't know the result so you'll have to trust me that my prediction is not based on any prior knowledge.

The trend so far is Selinger holding on to the ridings where he has MLA support and picking off a few others, Ashton holding on to ridings where is has MLA support and picking off a few other Winnipeg ridings and Swan holding on to about half of the ridings where he has MLA support.

So far McGifford, Rondeau, Howard, Dewar, Korzeniowski, Jha, Reid, Allan, Oswald and Selby have translated their support for a candidate into delegate support (5 for Selinger, 2 for Ashton, 3 for Swan). Chomiak, Mackintosh and Bjornson were not able to hold serve for Swan.

Earlier predictions:
River Heights (Selinger) Correct
Fort Rouge (Selinger) Correct
Radisson (Selinger) Incorrect
Selkirk (Selinger) Correct
Transcona (Selinger) Mostly incorrect
Kildonan (Swan) Incorrect
Steinbach (Selinger) Unknown
Carman (Swan) Incorrect
Concordia (Selinger) Mostly correct
Gimli (Swan) Mostly incorrect
Lakeside (Selinger) Unknown
Morris (Swan)Incorrect
River East (Selinger) Mostly incorrect
Rossmere (Selinger) Incorrect
Seine River (Swan) Correct
Southdale (Selinger)Incorrect
Springfield (Selinger)Unknown
St. James (Selinger)Correct
St. Johns (Swan)Incorrect
St. Vital (Swan)Correct

Correct 7, Incorrect 10

Charleswood/Assiniboia/Tux 29
Lord Roberts 29
River Heights 21
Fort Rouge 24
Transcona, Selkirk, Kildonan 52
River East 1
Gimli 24
St. Johns
St. James
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 19
Total: 260

Tuxedo 12
Radisson 31
Transcona 16
River East 18
Rossmere 41
Concordia 2
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 7
Total: 130

St. Vital
Seine River
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 12
Total: 67

Total delegates: 2000
Delegates needed for a first ballot win: 1000 delegates

MLAs/City Councillors/MPs based on this list + candidates voting for themselves


  1. I think The Pas may be Swan's "do or die" meeting. If he pulls a decent number of delegates, he'll move forward continuing to be a strong contender.

    If, despite Whitehead's support for Swan, Ashton sweeps The Pas, then Swan will lose critical momentum and the race will increasingly look like a polarized Selinger-Ashton battle. If that happens, I think it's likely that Swan's support will start to crumble as his potential supporters shift toward Selinger in an effort to block Ashton.

    We'll see, though -- these are interesting times!

  2. So, doing a little quick math in my head, you are expecting a tighter race by the end of the weekend, with Ashton making up ground on Selinger and Swan still trailing?

    Care to predict Inkster and The Maples?

  3. I think Ashton will take the vast majority of delegates in Inkster and The Maples.