Delegate Update 3.0

Selinger has swept the last two days of delegate selection. This includes Burrows, St. Boniface, Minto, Fort Garry and Riel. None of these are very surprising.

Tonight we have Inkster, La Verendrye, Portage La Prairie, Wolseley, Dauphin-Roblin and Kirkfield Park.

La Verendrye and Wolseley should be a lock for Selinger, as should Dauphin-Roblin and Kirkfield Park. Portage is anyone's guess, while Inkster is likely to go to Ashton.


Selinger:
Assiniboia
Concordia
Lord Roberts
River Heights
Fort Rouge
Selkirk
Kildonan
Gimli
Morris
Carman
St. Johns
St. James
St. Vital
Southdale
Seine River
Burrows
Fort Garry
St. Boniface
Minto
Riel
UPDATE: Inkster


Ashton:
Tuxedo
Charleswood
Radisson
Transcona
River East
Rossmere
Thompson
The Pas
Flin Flon


In response to the comment below.

On Monday, the Free Press had 353 for Ashton, 319 for Selinger and 105 for Swan or not affiliated.

Selinger will get the lion's share of Swan's support and not affiliated (Concordia). Add on top of that St. Boniface, Minto, Burrows, Fort Garry and Riel and you're looking at well over 500 and maybe over 600 for Selinger.

But this is so ball park that it's not really worth mentioning.

Swan out/Anybody but Ashton is on

The Free Press is reporting that Swan is dropping out of the race to become the next Premier.

This is partly due to Swan's poor showing to date but also because of the party establishment's fear of Ashton. Swan is a team player and realizes that an Ashton win could be devasting for the party. The anybody but Ashton campaign is on.

This development is a big boost to Selinger. You can bet that every MLA and Labour support that Swan had will now go over to Selinger as well as the St. Vital, Southdale and Seine River delegates. The vote splitting between Selinger and Swan is also over which should help Selinger in the coming days.

Ashton is still likely going to get large number of delegates in delegate rich Inkster and The Maples and could also pick up some more delegates in areas such as Fort Whyte. But with the entire party machine now behind Selinger, Ashton has taken a big hit.

Delegate Tally 2.0

As Dan Lett stated in his recent column, this is race that is very difficult to call, which partly explains my very suspect prediction record. I've also underestimated Ashton's popularity in Winnipeg.

But I'm not giving up yet. Fortunately, I still have a few obvious ridings to help me come back to .500. Prediction Thompson (Ashton), The Pas (split Ashton/Swan), Flin Flon (Ashton). I'm also going to predict that Swan River and Elmwood went to Selinger. The vote has already occurred but I don't know the result so you'll have to trust me that my prediction is not based on any prior knowledge.

The trend so far is Selinger holding on to the ridings where he has MLA support and picking off a few others, Ashton holding on to ridings where is has MLA support and picking off a few other Winnipeg ridings and Swan holding on to about half of the ridings where he has MLA support.

So far McGifford, Rondeau, Howard, Dewar, Korzeniowski, Jha, Reid, Allan, Oswald and Selby have translated their support for a candidate into delegate support (5 for Selinger, 2 for Ashton, 3 for Swan). Chomiak, Mackintosh and Bjornson were not able to hold serve for Swan.

Earlier predictions:
River Heights (Selinger) Correct
Fort Rouge (Selinger) Correct
Radisson (Selinger) Incorrect
Selkirk (Selinger) Correct
Transcona (Selinger) Mostly incorrect
Kildonan (Swan) Incorrect
Steinbach (Selinger) Unknown
Carman (Swan) Incorrect
Concordia (Selinger) Mostly correct
Gimli (Swan) Mostly incorrect
Lakeside (Selinger) Unknown
Morris (Swan)Incorrect
River East (Selinger) Mostly incorrect
Rossmere (Selinger) Incorrect
Seine River (Swan) Correct
Southdale (Selinger)Incorrect
Springfield (Selinger)Unknown
St. James (Selinger)Correct
St. Johns (Swan)Incorrect
St. Vital (Swan)Correct

Correct 7, Incorrect 10

Selinger:
Charleswood/Assiniboia/Tux 29
Lord Roberts 29
River Heights 21
Fort Rouge 24
Transcona, Selkirk, Kildonan 52
River East 1
Gimli 24
Morris
Carman
St. Johns
St. James
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 19
Total: 260


Ashton:
Tuxedo 12
Charleswood
Radisson 31
Transcona 16
River East 18
Rossmere 41
Concordia 2
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 7
Total: 130


Swan:
St. Vital
Southdale
Seine River
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 12
Total: 67


Total delegates: 2000
Delegates needed for a first ballot win: 1000 delegates


MLAs/City Councillors/MPs based on this list + candidates voting for themselves

Delegate Tally Update 1.5

Here's an incomplete account of yesterday's vote based on various sources.

Steinbach elected one delegate (winner ?)
Radisson elected 31 delegates (winner Ashton)
Transcona elected 18 delegates (Ashton 16, Selinger 2)
Kildonan (winner Selinger)
Selkirk (winner Selinger)

So far McGifford, Rondeau, Howard, Dewar, Jha and Reid have translated their support for a candidate into delegate support (4 for Selinger and 2 for Ashton). Chomiak was not able to hold serve for Swan.

Up next super Thursday, where 13 meetings are scheduled. This isn't as big a deal as some have made it out to be because most of these ridings have relatively few members. The big 3, in terms of membership (The Pas, The Maples and Inkster) are still coming up.

Prediction:
Carman Delegate Selection Meeting (Swan)
Concordia Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
Gimli Delegate Selection Meeting (Swan)
Lakeside Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
Morris Delegate Selection Meeting (Swan)
River East Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
Rossmere Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
Seine River Delegate Selection Meeting (Swan)
Southdale Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
Springfield Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
St. James Delegate Selection Meeting (Selinger)
St. Johns Delegate Selection Meeting (Swan)
St. Vital Delegate Selection Meeting (Swan)


Earlier predictions:
River Heights (Selinger) Correct
Fort Rouge (Selinger) Correct
Radisson (Selinger) Incorrect
Selkirk (Selinger) Correct
Transcona (Selinger) Mostly incorrect
Kildonan (Swan) Incorrect
Steinbach (Selinger) Unknown

The thing that bothers me about the process is that MYND members get to vote twice. They vote as part of MYND and as part of their respective constituencies. Same with labour. For this reason, I have no problem with trying to water down their vote a bit by not letting them vote as a block. One-member one-vote anyone.

Selinger:
Charleswood/Assiniboia/Tux 29
Lord Roberts 29
River Heights 21
Fort Rouge 24
Transcona 2
Selkirk
Kildonan
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 19
Total: 124


Ashton:
Tuxedo 12
Charleswood
Radisson 31
Transcona 16
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 7
Total: 66


Swan:
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 12
Total: 12

Unknown: Steinbach 1 delegate


Total delegates: 2000
Delegates needed for a first ballot win: 1000 delegates


MLAs/City Councillors/MPs based on this list + candidates voting for themselves

CBC bound

From working for City Councillor Gord Steeves, to CJOB, to City TV, this person is now moving on to the mother corp.

Delegate Support Tally: UPDATE 1

UPDATE: Unlike my earlier prediction (previous post), I hear that the River Heights/Fort Rouge meeting ended up being a race between Swan and Selinger rather than Selinger and Ashton (with Selinger taking both ridings).

So far the MLAs that have supported a leadership candidate (McGifford, Rondeau and Howard) have translated their endorsement into delegate support (all for Selinger).

I agree with Curtis that it would be nice for the NDP to post results but I can tell you that this is not going to happen. This is not a cut and dry process and I don't think that even the Party will have a firm grasp on the level of support for each candidate after the end of the week. Some delegates may get elected without stating a preference for a specific candidate while others may change their allegiance during the process.

As for reporters, the only outlet that has been covering some of the delegate process is the Free Press and they aren't even staying around until all the votes are counted. The numbers will get even less accurate when we hit Super Thursday. All we bloggers can do is give a ball park figure based on what we hear and vague media accounts (for example, I know that my Charleswood/Assiniboia/Tuxedo figure for Selinger is not completely accurate). So my little project may not last much longer than a few days.

With all that in mind, next up is Radisson, Selkirk, Transcona, Kildonan and Steinbach.

Prediction:
Radisson (Selinger, despite MLA Jha's support for Ashton)
Selkirk (Selinger, with the support of MLA Dewar)
Transcona (Selinger, despite MLA Reid's support for Ashton)
Kildonan (Swan will break into the action mainly because of the support of MLA Chomiak)
Steinbach (Selinger, but who really cares, maybe 3 delegates up for grabs)

Selinger:
Charleswood/Assiniboia/Tux 29
Lord Roberts 29
UPDATE: River Heights 21
UPDATE: Fort Rouge 24
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 19
Total: 122

Magic number of delegates for a first ballot win: 878

Ashton:
Tuxedo 12
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 7
Total: 18


Swan:
MLAs/City Councillors/MPs 12
Total: 12


Earlier predictions:
River Heights (Selinger)
Fort Rouge (Selinger)

Total delegates: 2000
Delegates needed for a first ballot win: 1000 delegates
Total delegates declared: 152
Delegates left to declare: 1848

MLAs/City Councillors/MPs based on this list + candidates voting for themselves

Tonight's prediction

First off, does anyone know the results of the Lord Roberts vote yesterday?

Now, let's get down to business.

I was pretty close in predicting MLA endorsements for the leadership candidates. Let’s see how I do with riding association voting.

On paper, River Heights and Fort Rouge should be a battle between Selinger and Swan but it will not be the case. Swan will be shut out again.

As was seen during Sunday’s vote in Charleswood, Tuxedo and Assiniboia (where Selinger picked up the support of 29 delegates and Ashton picked up the support of 12 Tuxedo delegates), the race will be between Selinger and Ashton.

What seems to be happening here is that the established members are supporting Selinger and to a lesser extend Swan, while many of the newly signed members are supporting Ashton. (NOTE: Swan will get the support of delegates but he will have to wait until at least Wednesday when Kildonan votes).

With the backing of Fort Rouge MLA Jennifer Howard and the make-up of the members(Curtis appropriately called them white wine socialists) Selinger should be able to take Fort Rouge fairly easily.

With no NDP MLA, River Heights could be a bit tricky to call. Like many other ridings, the membership in River Heights has more than doubled over the last three weeks. It is possible that Ashton has signed up enough new members to repeat Tuxedo but I’ll predict that Selinger will have enough support to take this one.

Interesting figures:
In August, the NDP had 5,500 members. They now have 14,000.
Liberals currently have 5,100 members.
Tories currently have 6,000 members. They had 21,000 during their leadership race in 2006.

Conclusion:
1. The NDP were completely unprepared and complacent with renewing memberships.

2. The Tories were able to sign up many more members during their leadership race. This is surprising since the NDP is choosing the next Premier and have a real race on their hands. I’m going to suggest that the short time frame for signing up members and the confusing delegate style system is the culprit. The NDP should seriously reconsider changing back to a one-member, one-vote system.

That's all I got this morning

Add this person to this post (she's also going to Shaw but she's staying put in Winnipeg) and add this person (supporting Selinger) to this post. Done for the day!

Ok, maybe not done just yet.

Frank Whitehead, MLA for The Pas has announced that he will be supporting Swan. With 100 delegates coming out of The Pas, this is a very important endorsement, or is it.

Endorsements have been a central theme so far in this leadership race (and on my blog). But I wonder, if the endorsements will translate into delegates at the riding association level.

I would be willing to wager that many riding associations will follow their MLAs' wishes in supporting a certain candidate. However, I see three exceptions. These are Transcona, Radisson and La Verendrye.

I just don’t think that Reid, Jha and Lemieux will be able to convince their members to support their candidate of choice. I believe that Selinger will take all three of these with the help of Blaikie in Transcona/Radisson and his own personal popularity in La Varendrye, which has a large francophone population.

Others such as Southdale, Seine River and Kirkfield Park may also be close and could go Selinger, while St. James could go Swan and Rupertsland may go Ashton.

Miny bloopers

Mike, check.

Podium, check.

Ribbon, check.

Sharp scissors for Health Minister Theresa Oswald…ah crap.

Small blooper from yesterday’s St. Boniface Hospital announcement.

It’s at 15:06 if you have the patience to wait for the commercial.

Another recent blooper was when Greg Selinger went to hug Eric Robinson at the leadership launch.

A bit awkward.

I was too lazy to find the video but I’m sure you could track it down.

Q and A

What do Chris Henderson (2002), Dan Vandal (2004) and Kaj Hasselriis (2006) all have in common?

They have all unsuccessfully run for Mayor and they are all supporting Greg Selinger for Premier, another unsuccessful mayoral candidate (1992).

On a different matter,

Ron Schuler, in question period yesterday, asked whether the province would ban kids from shaking hands after a sporting event because of fears over H1N1. If you don’t believe me, here’s the quote:

“And will the minister consider recommending that the customary handshakes before and after all games be suspended until further notice?”

Has it really come to this?

Where did they go, part deux

Here’s round two of this earlier post. This one is a bit old but ex-Global reporter Mike Brown has left his job as CTV web writer to work for Conservative MP Vic Toews.

It has also been rumored that this Global tv personality will not become the future Sylvia as she will be leaving the weather girl business (at least in Winnipeg) for greener pastures (Shaw Calgary). She is leaving many sad, mostly male viewers I’m sure.

Interesting?

Not sure if this is of any interest at all but this excerpt from an Andrew Swan letter to the MYND saying that he will be “accepting public campaign financing next year” caught my eye. I guess he’s no Doer after all or is he?.

Dear members of MYND,

(...)

I am also committed to accepting public campaign financing next year. With these additional funds, Provincial Office will have access to additional funding which will help to build our resources and organizational strength. Youth is a priority for me because I have witnessed the energy that Young New Democrats bring to their events and our party, and I want to help the MYND to increase their activities throughout the province.

(...)

Please do not hesitate to contact me at my campaign office if you have any questions.
Sincerely,

Andrew Swan
Candidate for the Leadership of the Manitoba NDP

Some more totally useless information

Here's another entry in the same category as this useless one....

If Facebook is any indication of who is leading the race for Premier (which obviously it isn't) it's not going to be a close one.

Selinger has just passed Swan today in terms of Facebook supporters (233 vs 218).

But both are still behind Ashton at 471.

Odds and Ends

Ashton:
I’m not sure if musing about a first ballot win is the best strategy for Ashton. Ashton is seen as a bit of a bogeyman in some NDP circles and this might coalesce the party into an ABA campaign (Anyone but Ashton). If you need proof about how talk of a win (or majority) can backfire, you don't need to look much further than the Federal Conservatives.

And even if you sell more memberships, recent history has shown us that it does not necessarily translate into a win. Ask Ron Schuler (see bottom of story).

Wedge:
Andrew Swan via Dan Lett is trying to put a wedge between himself and Selinger on the issue of the HST. Unfortunately it’s not much of a wedge when the candidates' positions can hardly be differentiated.

Here are a couple of recent quotes from Selinger:

Winnipeg Free Press, September 14:
“He (Selinger) said under the current terms being offered by Ottawa, "the HST is dead."

Brandon Sun, September 11:
“At this stage I don’t think it would be wise to implement it right now ... I keep an open mind on it, but the business case for it today was not good.”

Endorsements:
This person has announced that she is supporting Selinger.
That's up to 14 MLAs for Selinger.

You make how much

This just came out yesterday and is always an interesting read. To find out how much your MLA is paid or if you're nosy and want to know what your friends or family make at the Province of Manitoba click here.

Who's backing who at the zoo, two

UPDATED

Here’s a new list of who’s backing who so far.

Some of these were hinted at in this post.

Andrew Swan
Nancy Allan, MLA St. Vital/Labour Minister
Theresa Oswald, MLA Seine River/Health Minister
Stan Struthers, MLA Dauphin-Roblin/Conservation Minister
Peter Bjornson, MLA Gimli/Education Minister
Ron Lemieux, MLA La Verendrye/Infrastructure Minister
Dave Chomiak, MLA Kildonan/Justice Minister
Gord Mackintosh, MLA St. Johns/Family Services Minister
Sharon Blady, MLA Kirkfield Park
Erin Selby, MLA Southdale
Frank Whitehead, MLA The Pas
Pat Martin, MP Winnipeg Centre
Darlene Dziewit, president, Manitoba Federation of Labour
Robert Ziegler, UFCW.
Mike Davidson, President, CUPE Local 500
Kevin Rebeck, CUPE Manitoba president

Total: 7 Ministers, 3 MLAs, 1 MP, 4 Labour, O City Councillors = 15

Steve Ashton
Bidhu Jha, MLA Radisson
Darryl Reid, MLA Transcona
Tom Nevakshonoff, MLA Interlake
Niki Ashton, MP Churchill
Jim Maloway, MP Elmwood-Transcona
Russ Wyatt, City Councillor Transcona
Alex Forrest, president, United Firefighters of Winnipeg

Total: 0 Ministers, 3 MLAs, 2 MP, 1 Labour, 1 City Councillor =7

Greg Selinger
Eric Robinson, MLA Rupertsland/Culture Minister
Rosann Wowchuk, MLA Swan River/Ag. Minister
Diane McGifford, MLA Lord Roberts/Advanced Ed. Minister
Kerri Irvin-Ross, MLA Fort Garry/Healthy Living Minister
Melnick, MLA Riel/Water Stewardship Minister
Jim Rondeau, MLA Assiniboia/STEM Minister
Rob Altemeyer, MLA Wolseley
Marilyn Brick, MLA St. Norbert
Greg Dewar, MLA Selkirk
Jennifer Howard, MLA Fort Rouge
Doug Martindale, MLA Burrows
Mohinder Saran, MLA The Maples
Flor Marcelino, MLA Wellington
Bonnie Korzeniowski, MLA St. James
Bill Blaikie, MLA Elmwood
Drew Caldwell, MLA Brandon East
UPDATE: Judy Wasylycia-Leis, MP Winnipeg North
Dan Vandal City Councillor for St. Boniface
Jenni Gerbasi, City Councillor Fort Rouge
Brandon and District Labour Council president Jan Chaboyer
Paul Moist, CUPE President

Total: 6 Ministers, 10 MLAs, 1 MPs, 2 Labour, 2 City Councillors =21

Here are the caucus members and city councillors that have not publicly endorsed anyone yet:

Gerard Jennissen, MLA Flin Flon
Erna Braun, MLA Rossmere
Harvey Smith, City Councillor Daniel McIntyre
Lillian Thomas, City Councillor Elmwood

Big News

I hear that the Selinger campaign will be making an announcement tomorrow. Could it be on a big name joining the team? Maybe this person is someone that I hinted at in this post?

But I'm not saying just yet. You'll have to wait a bit longer.

I also hear that Bonnie Korzeniowski who attended all three launches has made up her mind on who she is supporting. Should be interesting. Find out more tomorrow.

All of this a day after the final figures for the 2008-09 fiscal year were released showing a net summary surplus (this includes all the operations of government including crowns) of $463 million and a size able increase in the rainy day fund. The surplus is much higher than the $316 million projected in the third quarter.

The numbers are quite strong especially when you consider the state of the world economy over this period. Compare this to pretty much any other province in Canada and Manitoba's finances start looking even better.

And I'm not saying that this current year won't be tough but first quarter projections never tell much of a story.

For example, in last year's first quarter, expenditures exceeded revenue by $119 million but the province came out pretty good in the end didn't they. The same story is repeated pretty much every first quarter.

So why is it even being reported? I dunno.

Anyway all of this to say that it's been a pretty good end of the week for the Selinger Team. Ok, enough of my cheer leading.

Who's backing who at the zoo

All the serious candidates have declared. To recap, here’s a list of who’s backing who so far.

Andrew Swan
Nancy Allan, MLA St. Vital/Labour Minister
Theresa Oswald, MLA Seine River/Health Minister
Stan Struthers, MLA Dauphin-Roblin/Conservation Minister
Sharon Blady, MLA Kirkfield Park
Erin Selby, MLA Southdale
Pat Martin, MP Winnipeg Centre

Steve Ashton
Bidhu Jha, MLA Radisson
Darryl Reid, MLA Transcona
Tom Nevakshonoff, MLA Interlake
Niki Ashton, MP Churchill

Greg Selinger
Eric Robinson, MLA Rupertsland/Culture Minister
Rosann Wowchuk, MLA Swan River/Ag. Minister
Diane McGifford, MLA Lord Roberts/Advanced Ed. Minister
Kerri Irvin-Ross, MLA Fort Garry/Healthy Living Minister
Rob Altemeyer, MLA Wolseley
Marilyn Brick, MLA St. Norbert
Greg Dewar, MLA Selkirk
Jennifer Howard, MLA Fort Rouge
Doug Martindale, MLA Burrows
Mohinder Saran, MLA The Maples
Added: Flor Marcelino, MLA Wellington

Here are the Cabinet Ministers, caucus members and MPs that have not publicly endorsed anyone yet and a prediction of who I think they will end up supporting.

Bill Blaikie –Selinger, MLA Elmwood
Gord Mackintosh –Swan, MLA St. Johns/Family Services Minister
Jim Rondeau –Selinger, MLA Assiniboia/STEM Minister
Peter Bjornson –Swan, MLA Gimli/Education Minister
Ron Lemieux –Swan, MLA La Verendrye/Infrastructure Minister
Christine Melnick –Selinger, MLA Riel/Water Stewardship Minister
Frank Whitehead -Selinger, MLA The Pas
Gerard Jennissen -Ashton, MLA Flin Flon
Jim Maloway -Ashton, MP Elmwood-Transcona
Drew Caldwell MOVED from no guess to likely Selinger, MLA Brandon East

And those that I can’t even give an educated guess.
Dave Chomiak –??, MLA Kildonan/Justice Minister
Erna Braun -??, MLA Rossmere
Bonnie Korzeniowki –who attended at least two (UPDATE: make that all three) of the conferences. ?? She has been quoted as saying that she will sleep on it another night.
Judy Wasylycia-Leis ??, MP Winnipeg North

UPDATE: Scott Smith (ex MLA Brandon West and currently working in Minister Swan's department) also attended both Swan's and Selinger's newsconferences.

UPDATE: I hear Dan Vandal City Councillor for St. Boniface was at Selinger's launch but this has not been confirmed.

Tidbit

I hear Andrew Swan had to change his plans and give away his tickets to the big game.

The inevitable sacrifices of running for Premier or has he heard something and is getting a bit worried?

You can't vote twice

According to CJOB, St. James MLA Bonnie Korzeniowski is at the Steve Ashton news conference. If you recall, she was also seen at the Andrew Swan leadership kick-off event.

Others at the confenrence (so far): Bidhu Jha, MLA for Radisson.

Update: Darryl Reid is also there.

Fair enough (on Bonnie's reasoning for attending both events).

Didn't I just read that

Interesting CBC comments; looks like the Steve Ashton speaking points are making the rounds.


BrianL wrote:
"Steve Ashton represents a significant positive change from the policies of Doer and the like. And as far as politicians go, he is a good one by any standards - honest, experienced, without a hint of controversy, and if he managed to go from winning a squeaker in the early 80s to regularly over 75% these days, he's obviously doing something right. And in a fight with McFadyen, Ashton would make mincemeat out of him. I'm not an NDP member, but this has me thinking of taking out a card."

Tractor wrote:
"Ashton has a reputation as a straight talking, honest and hard-working MLA and Minister. He regularly pulls over three-quarters of the popular vote in his riding (which he took in a squeaker from the Conservative incumbent some time back in the 80s I think?). He has had 20+ years of experience with multiple ministerial portfolios and never a sniff of controversy. Even right-wing commentators in the Winnipeg papers have shown him grudging admiration... and oh yeah, wasn't he the guy who took the Golden Boy down and gave it a good clean and polish? :)

Would you vote for this guy? I would."

Kiss of death, Firefighter's support Ashton

Curtis has provided us with an interesting analysis on Ashton’s chances in the leadership race. But we will have to agree to disagree on this one. This generation of NDPers are disciples of the Gary Doer school of politics and if he has taught them anything during the last two decades is that they need to be pragmatic (read centrist) and pick someone who can appeal to the general public. Ashton will have his supporters, knows how to play the game and will get respectable results, but it won’t be enough.

As for the firefighter union’s record on picking winners. Ouch!

Now we have a race, well kinda

Steve Ashton is putting on his running shoes and making this a two man race. But the sprint to October 17th is over before it has even started, as Andrew Swan will run circles around him.

Don’t get me wrong, Ashton has his supporters and will bring some fresh new ideas. Unlike Swan, Ashton is not happy with the status quo and the current direction of the party. He’s feisty, quick on his feet and one of the best orators around. He may even sell more memberships than Swan.

But his brand of politics does not resonate with the public and will not win the NDP an election. For this reason he’s a non-starter according to most NDP members. This is not the federal NDP. The provincial wing is not content with being the conscience of the legislature.

This race is more in the category of a him vs him contest or him vs anyone else on the planet.

Only Greg Selinger will make this a true contest. A third candidate would also be good news for Ashton and provide him with some clout in a delegate style convention.

We've got one!!!

Andrew Swan is in. This is not a big surprise.

But check out the list of people who have come out in support of Swan.

Nancy Allan -Labour Minister
Stan Struthers -Conservation Minister
Theresa Oswald -Health Minister
Sharon Blady -MLA Kirkfield Park
Erin Selby -MLA Southdale
Bonnie Korzeniowski -MLA St. James

What is interesting about the last four on the list is that Greg Selinger helped them out during the last election by going door-to-door with them. I guess memories are short in politics.

Winnipeg, home of the hardcore

Another reason we will need a police helicopter.

Coming out of the woodwork

Greg Selinger briefly spoke to the media for the first time earlier today at the legislature. It is definitely starting to look like he will run. He had spent most of this week on the phone and it looks like he has the support needed to make a run at the leadership.

Persistent rumors at the legislature also indicate that Gord Mackintosh is seriously considering running.

Nancy Allan has also confirmed that she will not be running for the leadership.

Others will also be making their intentions known in the next day or two.

UPDATE: Bill Blaikie has also just confirmed he is not running.